THE BIG PUSH THEORY AND INFRASTRUCTURAL DEVELOPMENT IN NIGERIA
Keywords:
Big Push Theory, Capital Formation, Foreign Direct Investment, Institutional QualityAbstract
Good infrastructure is widely recognised as a cornerstone of economic development in emerging
economies. In Africa, and particularly in Nigeria, limited financing has discouraged investment, reduced
productivity, and exacerbated poverty and inequality. Despite repeated government interventions, capital
formation remains persistently low, leaving Nigeria’s infrastructure lagging behind that of comparable
nations. Existing research confirms that sustained capital growth requires public capital expenditure (PCE),
foreign direct investment (FDI), official development assistance (ODA), and strong institutional quality
(IQ). However, few studies have examined these determinants collectively within a single framework
such as the Big Push Theory. This theory posits that a coordinated set of investments is necessary
to generate the synergistic effects that drive continuous economic growth. This study investigates the
main factors influencing capital formation in Nigeria and evaluates whether current investment patterns
align with the Big Push Theory. Employing a quantitative approach, regression analysis was conducted
to examine the relationship between Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) and its determinants.
The findings reveal that PCE has a negative and statistically significant relationship with GFCF, while
FDI, ODA, and IQ exhibit positive and significant impacts. These results underscore the importance of
institutional quality, foreign aid, and historical investment momentum, while highlighting inefficiencies in
public spending and weak integration with foreign investment. The study concludes that for Nigeria to
effectively pursue a Big Push development strategy, reforms must prioritise not only mobilising financial
resources but also strengthening institutions and improving the quality of investments.
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